Friday, February 28, 2020

Halstead Open House Index - report from weekend of February 23, 2020



Good morning Halstead Open House Index followers!

Here is my recap from the weekend of February 22-23. Sorry for one day delay, I was out of town, just returned last night.

I am not sure what happened, but the attendance went up crazy last weekend, especially in Brooklyn. I heard the rumor that, if you move to Brooklyn, you will be immune from coronavirus , could that be it? :)

The average attendance in NYC jumped to 5.62 per open house. The weekend prior it was 4.19, so this is 34% increase in attendance! (I am seriously worried that you guys are eager to report your numbers when attendance is good, and you are totally shy when you have zero.). Nice increase in surveys received too. We received 277 replies, compared to 239 the weekend earlier. I forgot to check the number of open houses held last weekend, hence no estimate of the number of buyers.

25 open houses reported zero attendance. 9.0%, not bad. When this percentage goes above 15%, it signals slow weekend for all.

The most visited open house mention goes to Sascha Beicken from Halstead Brooklyn. He reported 60 parties at his first open house for his exclusive at 251 Pacific Street in Cobble Hill. Here is in his own words: “The apartment is so attractive because it's on the Cobble /Boerum Hill border and very well priced for a beautifully renovated unit in this location with an amazing shared roof. We received 5 offers, all substantially above ask; if it's priced right, then it's selling now given that interest rates are also still falling. Yes, I was alone and everyone signed in on the iPad. It's not too big a space so it was manageable.” It was an amazing weekend in Brooklyn. If you check the Dataset, the top 8 open houses last weekend were in Brooklyn, the least visited had 23 attendees! Check the Brooklyn numbers in detail below. Last year, on February 24, 2019, the average for all of NYC was 3.78, from 320 responses received. Here is the dataset. Let’s check the action in each borough:

Manhattan – the average jumped to 4.65 per open house, from 3.52 the weekend earlier. Nice 32% increase in traffic for Manhattan. Above average in Soho & Tribeca (6.22), Gramercy Park Area (6.00), UWS (5.51), even UES eked out above the average number with 4.74. Midtown West (1.71) and Chelsea (2.40) on the bottom. See the rest of the numbers below and beware of small sample sizes. We received 221 replies from Manhattan. Last year, on February 24, 2019, Manhattan recorded 3.49.

Brooklyn – totally on fire last weekend. The average jumped to 12.94 per open house, from 8.39 the weekend prior. 6 Brooklyn neighborhoods recorded attendance higher than 10.00 – Cobble Hill (22.20), Park Slope (23.25), Fort Greene (19.33)…. Check details below and beware of small sample sizes. We received 35 replies from Brooklyn. Last year on corresponding weekend Brooklyn recorded 5.95.

Bronx – the average climbed to 3.85, from 3.78 the weekend earlier. We received 13 replies from the Bronx open houses.

Queens – the average dropped to 3.40 from just five open houses that arrived from Queens.

Staten Island – nothing yet.

Size – Multi-unit buildings were off the chart with 16 average from 4 open houses. Busy at 4BR open houses with 9.75 and JR4s (7.13). The slowest at studios (4.21) and 1BRs (4.52).

Price – busy in $2M-$3M range (6.42), slow in $3M+ range (2.44) and under $500K range (5.28). Everything else was in between.

Type – condos (5.44) just slightly below co-ops (5.48).

Condition – the wrecks won this time with 6.70.

First Open House – premium of 273% of first open houses (11.32) vs. the “stale” ones (4.14).

By Appointment Only – 58% more traffic at the “normal” open houses (5.77) vs. those labeled as “by appointment only” (3.63).

This is all for today. Please note that I removed Bushwick from the Brooklyn areas and replaced it with Dumbo. Let’s see if we get more replies from that part of Brooklyn going forward.

“Not On StreetEasy” concept seems to be spreading. I counted 10 e-mails since last week of properties promoted as “Not On StreetEasy”. Let me know what you all think.

Some of you are asking to simplify the data entry in my Google form so you do not have to retype it each time from your open houses. I hear you and I wish I could. Maybe there is something you could do with your settings in Chrome or Safari to remember your entries? I do not know how to do it. I also heard a comment that this weekly report is “for and from Halstead only”, hence reluctance to participate. I can assure you that less than 50% of replies come from the Halstead agents. I am personally blown away on the many encouraging replies and comments I received, regarding how much this weekly recap has actually united the industry to co-operate with data. Please share with others and encourage them to participate. The goal is to receive 10% replies from all the open houses held weekly. 

Best of luck at your open houses this coming weekend. The weather forecast is nice and sunny. Let’s see if the carnage on the Wall Street and the virus panic has placed a dent in average attendance and in the buyers’ appetite. 

PS: Do not forget to check my reports on my blog at https://halsteadopenhouseindex.blogspot.com/. A great suggestion from one of our readers: write in the comment section how many visitors were direct buyers and how many came with brokers. Also, write here if your exclusive is on StreetEasy or not. Those of you comfortable, you can write here the exact address of your exclusive, so it becomes visible to all. Also, check the link to dataset. (In the comments section you will find interesting data, such as addresses of properties or if there was a price drop, etc.) 

Best regards,

Fritz Frigan
To Sign Up to Receive Halstead’s Open House Index Report Click Here









Thursday, February 20, 2020

Halstead Open House Index - report from weekend of February 16, 2020



Good morning Halstead Open House Index loyal supporters!

The numbers are in from last weekend, but it’s kind of disappointing that the number of surveys received is in steady decline. 258 is the most we received this year on January 26, and it is getting slower since. How do we get all agents to participate? How do we get big firms to share their open house data?

The average attendance in NYC last weekend dropped to 4.19, from 4.85 recorded the weekend before. This is a 13% drop, not insignificant. We received 239 replies to our survey. Last year on February 17, 2019, the average stood at 4.12. I think it is obvious that traffic at open houses this January and February is stronger practically every weekend, compared to 2019. An uptick in buyers’ interest?

31 open houses reported zero traffic, many of them “by appointment only”. Please report all your numbers. Often I receive a comment like “I had zero traffic, hence nothing to report.” No!! Zero is a number too! The more data we get, the more accurate the index will be. If you do not participate when you had zero traffic, the average is artificially too high. If you advertised your open house on StreetEasy and to co-brokers, you should report the number, even if it is a zero.

The record open house mention this time goes to three open houses! They all reported 40 parties attending: again this week on top were Judy Liebman and Dawn Silverstein of Corcoran (last week I did not mention Judy in my report, my apology) for their open house at 231 Park Place (which is in Prospect Heights, and not in Park Slope as I reported last weekend and one of you noticed). Also, on top, with 40 attendees came Sandra Dowling of Brooklyn Heights Real Estate, Inc. at her open house at 114 Clinton Street in Brooklyn Heights, as well as Greg Mire of Compass, who reported 40 attendees at his open house at 134 Boerum Place in Cobble Hill. Brooklyn was on fire last weekend, it seems!

Here is from Greg Mire, in his own words: “Our listing is special in the sense that the location is super prime with limited inventory, it is a condo with private outdoor space and a washer/dryer, and has the option to purchase parking. We are strategically priced for a quick sale, and it also doesn’t hurt that our listing shows very well and our photography turned out beautifully. The attendance was much heavier at the beginning, and given this is a one-bedroom, we had to hold some crowds at the door a few times. But it flowed pretty smoothly about a half hour in. We have four different parties who have promised offers.” 

Here is from Dawn and Judy, in their own words: “Our exclusive continues to be so attractive for several reasons. First the photos and staging make the property appealing to the consumer. We were featured in Curbed last week, which brought a lot of interest. The apartment itself is beautiful with a renovated kitchen and bathroom as well as many upgraded details. The location is desirable. It’s right on the B and Q train lines. Also, prospect heights has become increasingly more popular over the past few years. , and it’s well priced. The crowds were challenging but we had the opportunity to greet everybody who walked in. We also accommodated some people for second showings and had a midweek open house to ensure everyone got the time and attention they needed. Yes, we have multiple offers. We’re calling for highest and best today by 3 PM.”

Here is from Sandra, in her own words: “My apt was very well priced compared to other 2 bedrooms in Bklyn Heights not to mention a sponsor unit with a wbfplc We did expect over ask which we have multiple. I had an agent at the door and an assistant in the apartment. I have also been showing all week to another 25 or so. It did require a new kitchen and upgraded bathroom otherwise beautifully restored.” 

There were 5022 open houses in New York City last weekend and roughly 5569 prospective buyers were hopping from one open house to another. Here is the dataset. Let’s check the boroughs:

Manhattan – the average dropped to 3.52 per open house, from 4.20 recorded the weekend earlier. A 16% drop in traffic, which is significant. Busy in East Village (13.00) from just three open houses submitted. Above the average traffic in Central & west Village (4.73), Upper West Side (4.37), Gramercy Park Area (4.20). Even Upper East Side was above the average with 3.75. Way below the average was in Midtown West (1.86) and Midtown East (2.20). See the rest below. We received 190 replies from Manhattan. Last year, on February 17, 2019, the Manhattan average stood at 3.93.

Brooklyn – very strong 8.39 per open house, thanks to these three super strong open houses with 40 attendees each. Hence, Brooklyn Heights, Cobble Hill and Park Slope/Prospect Heights are off the chart. See details below. We received just 31 replies from Brooklyn.

Bronx – the average dipped to 3.78, from 5.08 the weekend before. Just 9 open houses received from the Bronx.

Queens – the average dipped to 4.20 from an insignificant statistical sample of just 5 open houses that arrived from Queens. I don’t think the Queens agents care very much about these statistics?

Staten Island – radio silence.

Size – Multi-family buildings (13.75), JR4s (9.86) and Townhouses (8.50) were super hot. Studios (2.03) and 4BRs (2.60) on the bottom of interest.

Price - $500K-$1M most visited price segment with 4.98. Above $3M were of least interest with 1.90.

Type – practically no difference in co-op vs. condo attendance. We did not see this in a while.

Condition – Excellent/mint condition on top this week with 4.41.

First Open House – 205% more traffic at first open houses (7.73) vs. the stale ones (3.76).

By Appointment Only – 280% more traffic at “normal” open houses (4.46), vs. those advertised “by appointment only” (1.59).

This is all for now. I received interesting comment from Therese Bateman, of Level Group, in response to Aimee Becker’s initiative to delay posting her sales listings on StreetEasy: “Hi Fritz, Thank you for the OH Index - indeed, knowledge is power and having real time data like this is invaluable. I applaud Aimee Becker's initiative. I will be delaying putting any of my new exclusives on StreetEasy for at least the first month of the listing agreement. In addition to co-broking, (90% of NYC sales), I will market my exclusives through alternative methods. Other agents will do the same. We know we don't need StreetEasy and it's time StreetEasy learns that it does need us. StreetEasy can't be the "go to" for sales listings when new listings are seen elsewhere for a full month before they appear on SE, let alone the number of listings that will never show up at all. Members of the public will gravitate to the next site that "has it all" (especially the new listings) such as www.linecity.com which is free to use. It is comprehensive because it includes all those listings that agents do not feed or delay feeding to StreetEasy. It is the new, attractive public interface of OLR (good reliable tech and database), which is not looking to steal or require payment for your leads. If we, the thousands upon thousands of agents use our individual and social media influence to alert our clients, friends, family and colleagues to an alternative comprehensive website, the general public will gravitate to the most direct, reliable and least misleading source of information. It's time. I'm definitely OK with you publishing my comment.

Let me know what you think.

Best of luck at your open houses this weekend. Do not forget to check the dataset. A lot of interesting comments from all of you. If your listing is NOT on StreetEasy and you had an open house, please put that in the comment section. It will be interesting to track the traffic generated just from co-brokering and from other web sites.

PS: Do not forget to check my reports on my blog at https://halsteadopenhouseindex.blogspot.com/. A great suggestion from one of our readers: write in the comment section how many visitors were direct buyers and how many came with brokers. Those of you comfortable, you can write here the exact address of your exclusive, so it becomes visible to all. Also, check the link to dataset. (In the comments section you will find interesting data, such as addresses of properties or if there was a price drop, etc.)

Best regards,

Fritz Frigan
To Sign Up to Receive Halstead’s Open House Index Report Click Here