Hello Halstead Open House Index
supporters and subscribers!
How are you adjusting to this new
corona order of things? Is someone writing a screenplay or a book
with a working title “Open Houses in the Time of Coronavirus”? And
before I go into averages, just know that Midboro Management has
prohibited open houses in all of their buildings. I just heard that
50 Lexington Avenue did the same. Orsid Management sent a long e-mail
instructing owners and brokers on how they will operate during the
coronavirus siege. Did you get it? If not, e-mail me privately, I
will send it to you. Also, Tudor Realty cancelled all closings for
the time being. Share news from the front lines, and I will include
in my newsletter next week.
As expected, the average attendance in
NYC cratered last weekend. The average fell to 2.36, from
181 open house surveys received. The number of open houses held last
weekend dropped dramatically. There were 3927 scheduled for Saturday
and Sunday, but it is a safe bet that much fewer were actually held.
There was a slew of e-mails on Saturday and Sunday morning informing
us that “open house was cancelled.” This is 28% less open houses
scheduled this past weekend compared to the weekend of March 8. On
average, each weekend this year, from January 5 to February 16, 5279
open houses were held. I expect the number of open houses planned for
this coming weekend to drop further.
The average of 2.36 per open houses
is 42% less traffic, compared to the weekend earlier when our Index
recorded 4.10. In turn, 4.10 was 14% less than the weekend of March
1., when we recorded 4.77. And March 1 was 15% down from the weekend
of February 23, when we recorded 5.62 visitors per open house. All in
all, we are witnessing a 58% reduction in traffic at open houses from
February 23 to March 15. But not as bad as the stock market, which is
down about 33%, as I am writing this on Wednesday at 1pm.
32% of open houses in our survey had
zero traffic. 58 open houses reported zero, out of 181 in our survey.
If that % holds across the board, it means that 1256 open houses last
weekend had zero attendees. Very gloomy!
Still, some first open houses had
very good attendance, damn the crowds and risk of the virus! Accolade
for the most visited open house goes again to Amelia Gewirtz
and Andrew Phillips from Halstead. Their first open house
at 146 ½ Java Street in
Greenpoint attracted 32 buyers! Here in Amelia’s words: “Not
even CDC could stop the crowd from beloved 146 ½ Java premier open
house! Wow! 5 offers, multiples over ask, within 2 days. Think
positive NYC, we will get through this. Hong Kong is back to eating
at outdoor cafes!” Top four open houses by the number of visitors
were in Brooklyn.
According to my estimate, there were
roughly 2453 buyers hopping from one open house to another this past
weekend. Margin of error: huge. Here is the
dataset. Let’s check the action in each borough:
Manhattan – the average fell to 1.79 per open house. It
was 4.03 the weekend earlier, a 55% drop!! Shocking to see UWS below
the average with 1.73 from 22 open houses. UES was above the average
with 2.68 from 31 open houses. Midtown East was dreadful with 1.03
from 29 open houses. See the rest below.
Brooklyn – the average fell to 4.62, not bad when
compared to weekend prior of 4.88. Just 5.3% drop for Brooklyn. If we
remove top three record open houses (with 32, 15 and 15 attendees),
the average drops significantly to just 2.77. Perfect example how
small sample sizes in statistics skews the averages. See all details
below.
Bronx – the average dropped to 2.00 per open house,
from 2.31 the weekend earlier. Just two surveys received from the
Bronx agents.
Queens – the average dropped to 3.54, from 5.23
recorded the week earlier. 32% drop in Queens. 13 surveys received from
Queens, so again: beware of the small sample sizes.
Staten Island – 1.5 attendees on average from two open houses
received from the Richmond County.
Size – JR4s and 1BRs apartment were most visited
(2.75 and 2.53 respectively). Slow at studio open houses with 1.52.
Price – Best traffic in $2M-$3M range (5.62), helped
with those record open houses in Brooklyn. Slowest was in $3M+ range
and $1M-$2M.
Condition – the wrecks (8.00) won this time, and
“excellent/mint” (2.58) came in second.
First Open House – again large premium for first open houses
(5.13) vs. just 1.79 for the “stale” ones.
By Appointment Only – “Normal” open houses saw 2.55 attendees and
“by appointment only” just 1.71. Huge increase in number of By
Appointment Only open houses: 22% this past weekend, vs. just 7% the
weekend prior.
StreetEasy – just eight open houses were marked as not
being on StreetEasy and their traffic was 1.63. 173 open houses that
were advertised on StreetEasy recorded attendance of 2.39. 27% premium
for advertising on StreetEasy.
This is all for today. As the last
week, I decided to share some of the most interesting comments you
left in the survey (to see them all click on the dataset).
Miles Chapin: “Normally I would have thought about 25-30 people
would show up for the first OH for this landmark townhouse in the
Hunter's Point Historic District. We had at least 12 (that many
signed in, but it was a bit of a madhouse) which is a dozen more than
I was expecting.”
Mallory Brown: “*Has 900sf of private outdoor with outdoor
kitchen. Can’t believe we had so many people. I thought it would be
ghost town. We are pulling off the market tomorrow- hoping one of
these interested parties (or more than one!) make offers even though
we will be off market. Multiple parties say they are submitting but
they said that last week and nothing happened - so needless to say,
we are taking this day by day.”
Doreen Mangan: “Exactly half the number of groups who visited
last Sunday, which was the first open house. I was pleased with the
turnout, given the current environment. Some seemed to be beginning
their search, but there were serious buyers there, too. I had
booties, disposable gloves, Lysol wipes, etc., as before. As I
mentioned last week, there's tight inventory in Washington Heights
for apartments this size, and they're in great demand. We have one
offer, and expect more.”
Milutin Nikodijevic: “I was very surprised that I had 8 people given
all the external factors in play. It was the second open house. The
first one had 6 people and no SE exposure. For this open house I did
put it on SE. I have 2 offers on the apartment.”
Bridget Harvey: “At this price point & for first open house,
we usually have at least 20 parties. I wasn’t sure what to expect,
and 6 parties meant I was able to sanitize between parties, so I’m
counting as a success.”
Chris B Georgakopoulos: “The buyers were out and about Sunday -
Hallelujah! Perhaps it was the glorious weather or maybe a feeling of
resistance against any interruption of a well thought out life plan.
How strong is our desire for security and comfort that even in the
midst of a pandemic, we through caution to the wind and take flight
to safety via house hunting. There's nothing more secure and
comforting than owning a home. The ultimate place to self-quarantine.
Sending blessings to all.”
Joanne Gay: “Outdoor space. FYI. My open house was shut down
by the building after 25 mins. Not notice was given to owners not to
have open houses. We are in new territory for sure!”
Best of luck at your open houses
this weekend. Share your experiences, this shall pass too.
Wash your hands and the best advice
I heard on Twitter was: Behave like you already have a virus and you
do not want to give it to anyone!
See below the line chart of
attendance in 2020. The week between Feb 23rd and March 1 was when first case of Corona virus
was announced in NYC. The chart tells you all that you need to know!
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