Thursday, February 20, 2020

Halstead Open House Index - report from weekend of February 9, 2020



Good morning Halstead Open House Index members and supporters!

It is Thursday, time to share my weekly open house recap with your sellers! So, what happened last weekend?

The numbers are in and the average attendance in all of NYC jumped to 4.85 parties per open house. (From 4.20 recorded the weekend prior.) A nice 15% uptick in traffic. Last year, on February 10 weekend, we reported 4.50. We received 248 replies this week, which does not make me particularly happy. We used to get 350-400 responses each week, what happened? 

26 open houses reported zero traffic, this is 10%. What are you guys doing at such slow open houses? I recommend the book “Million Dollar Networking” from Andrea Nirenberg. Superb advice on how to expand and nurture your network. So you keep your pipeline full with referrals.

The most visited open house this weekend broke all recent records. Dawn Silverstein from Corcoran reported 91 parties at her first open house at 231 Park Place in Park Slope in Brooklyn. Yup, you read it right. She said there were probably 180 people at the open house! Here, in her own words: “We think there are a few factors why we had such a large crowd. The apartment is very charming and beautifully renovated. Our staging and photos really captured the highlights of the apartment. From the data we saw, we feel we priced it well. There were two of us and there was a steady flow over the 2 hour window. Someone actually said this will give her an idea of what it would be like to throw a party. So far we have 1 offer, expecting more to come in.”


There were 5607 open houses held in NYC last weekend and roughly 7198 prospective buyers were hopping from one to another. Here is the dataset. Let’s check the boroughs:

Manhattan – the average jumped to 4.20, from 3.79 the weekend earlier. Nice 10% uptick in Manhattan. East Village (10.71) was through the roof, thanks to one open house by Rudi Hanja of BHS, who reported 41 parties. Even without it, East Village would have reported 5.66, better than average. UWS was stronger than average (5.22) and so was Central & West Village (4.73). Upper East Side was weak last weekend (3.73) and so was in Harlem (3.00), Midtown East (3.26) and Midtown West (3.14). Manhattan recorded 4.39 last year on February 10, 2019. See the rest below. 

Brooklyn – the average jumped to 8.22, from 6.92 the weekend before. But, primarily thanks to this one record open house. Without it Brooklyn actually went down to 5.85. This shows you how tricky statistics can be with small sample sizes. One outlier result completely changes the direction of averages. See the rest of the results below. We received 36 replies from Brooklyn, the same as the weekend before. Brooklyn recorded 5.26 last year on this weekend.

Bronx – the average jumped to 5.08, from 3.17 the weekend earlier. Busy in Riverdale with 5.33.

Queens – the average jumped to 4.63, from 3.33 the weekend earlier. Just 8 open houses reported from Queens.

Staten Island – back on the map with 9.00 visitors at one open house reported from the Richmond County.

Size – JR4s did really well with 9.88, then 4BR apartments with 6.75. The slowest was at studio and 4BR open houses. See all the numbers below.

Price - $500K-$1M range was the best with 6.05. Even without that one OH with 91 parties, this price range recorded 5.29, still the best. Very slow in $3M+ range (2.50).

Condition – for change, properties described as “Mint, excellent condition” attracted the most parties: 5.59. Wrecks were the slowest.

First Open House – huge 285% more traffic at first open house (10.84), vs. those “stale” ones (3.80).

By Appointment Only – just 59% more traffic at “normal” open houses (5.01) vs. those advertised “by appointment only” (3.14).

This is all for now, partners! Are you breathing the collective sigh of relief with the judge ruling a stay on that crazy DOS ruling last week? This was one of the craziest weeks in my career. Tell me more how to throw the industry in chaos with irresponsible interpretation of the new, really poorly written, rental laws. We received a number of requests from rental customers demanding their fee refund, because they “read it in the papers, hence it must be right!” Irresponsible journalism + irresponsible DOS = lethal combination.

Also, did you catch the news that StreetEasy now has a real estate broker license in NY and they acquired the mortgage company? Aren’t you just a bit worried, what their plans are in the near or semi-near future? I received this comment from Aimee Becker from Sotheby’s and I am printing it here with her permission:

“Hi Fritz,
Love your reports! I didn’t have any new listings in January but I’m listing a few things in the coming weeks and will certainly be participating again.

As I’m sure you saw this week as well, StreetEasy got their brokerage license, thus solidifying what I always thought- they will eventually start to charge referral fees for any traffic that comes through their site. Either that or they’ll be hiring their own agents and taking all of the leads for themselves. Because of this, I have decided to no longer give my information out to them and will not be listing my properties on StreetEasy. I assume eventually other people will do the same. In the beginning I think this will affect Open House turnout so I will make a note of it on my submissions. I have a bunch of ideas on how to market the properties without StreetEasy and I’ll let you know how it goes!! We have to cut the ties at some point so I’ll just be the first in line! Hopefully REBNY or the big brokerages can get together and do something non-profit. I'll keep you updated on how it goes with my listings over the next few weeks. I am planning to start an Instagram page called @notonstreeteasy where I can list mine or anyone else’s listings/open houses if they aren't on StreetEasy.
I'll let you know so agents have another outlet to advertise Open Houses.” 

I agree with Aimee, anyone else? Idea: in the comment section of my Google Form you can write if your exclusive was or wasn’t advertised on StreetEasy. Deal? Feel free to write to me and if you’d like me to share your thoughts here I will. And it is perfectly fine if you want to remain anonymous. This weekly report is YOURS. It reaches now over 2200 agents in NYC (plus there are some reporters and developers lurking here). Share your ideas how to make this report better, how to improve our services to consumers, how to co-operate better between brokers, how to increase the professionalism and values offered to consumers by real estate agents and brokers. I am personally really interested in how I can get more replies each week! :) 

This is all for today, folks. Best of luck at your open houses this weekend.

PS: Do not forget to check my reports on my blog at https://halsteadopenhouseindex.blogspot.com/. Great suggestion from one of our readers: write in the comment section how many visitors were direct buyers and how many came with brokers. Those of you comfortable, you can write here the exact address of your exclusive, so it becomes visible to all. Also, check the link to dataset. (In the comments section you will find interesting data, such as addresses of properties or if there was a price drop, etc.)

Best regards,

Fritz Frigan
To Sign Up to Receive Halstead’s Open House Index Report Click Here









Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Halstead Open House Index - report from weekend of February 2, 2020



Good morning Halstead Open House Index subscribers and contributors!

Or is it a good morning? Did you like the bomb DOS dropped on our industry yesterday? Don’t think for a moment that this will only affect the rental business in NYC. This is just another move with unintended consequences: the rents will go up because of this and investors will start avoiding and leaving New York City. Which will affect the condo sale market too. Let me know your thoughts.

Here are the numbers. Last weekend was the Super Bowl weekend, which means more open houses on Saturday and less on Sunday. The average attendance in NYC dropped almost 20%, from 5.23 the weekend prior to 4.20 per open house on the weekend of February 2nd. We received 255 replies last weekend.

24 open houses reported zero attendance, roughly 9.4%.

The most visited open house mention goes to Louise Phillips Forbes from Halstead. She reported 20 parties at her new exclusive at 545 West End Avenue. It is a 4BR for $3,325M – nice to see some strong attendance in the “cursed” $3M+ price range.

There were 5,240 open houses in NYC last weekend and roughly 5,825 prospective buyers were hopping from one to another. Here is the dataset. Let’s check what happened in each borough:

Manhattan – the average dropped to 3.79, from 4.90 the weekend before. This is the slowest so far this year. Central and West Village (5.10) above the average and so was Soho and Tribeca (9.25). UES surprisingly strong with 4.75 and UWS surprisingly weak with 3.72. Midtown West was surprisingly strong with 4.33 and Midtown East typically weak with 2.09. Last year on February 3, 2019, the average stood at 4.41. We received 195 replies from Manhattan.

Brooklyn – the average was a strong 6.92 in Brooklyn, still a dip from the weekend earlier when we recorded 9.73. Bay Ridge (9.50), Windsor Terrace (9.33), Park Slope (7.75) and Bed Stuy (7.80), all above the average. Williamsburg relatively slow with 4.00. See the rest below and beware of small sample sizes. Last year on February 3rd, we recorded 4.68 for Brooklyn.

Bronx – the average jumped to 3.17 from 18 open houses reported. See details below.

Queens – the average dropped to 3.33 from just three open houses that arrived from Queens.

Staten Island – 0

Size – 4BRs came on top with 8.83 and so did Multi-Unit buildings (6.50) and Townhouses (5.13). 3BRs are also worth mentioning with 4.85. Slow with studios (3.03).

Price - $3M+ on top this week with 6.42. Even without that one record open house with 20 attendees, $3M+ would have been 5.18, still stronger than the rest. Slow in under $500K and $2M-$3M price ranges. See details below.

Condition – properties labeled “very good, minor work needed” were most visited (4.59).

First Open House – 214% more traffic at first open houses this week, than at the “stale” ones.

By Appointment Only – 51% more traffic and “normal” open houses than at those labeled “by appointment only”.

This is all from me today. Just a quick note to some of you who left comments – I’d love to make it easier for you to complete the survey, but I don’t know how. I am using Google Form and I do not see a solution how to make sure that form remembers your entry from the previous week, so you just need to change the date and the number of visitors at your open house.

Encourage your friends in the industry to participate. We should be able to get more replies each weekend.

Best of luck at your open houses this coming weekend! The weather forecast is nice and sunny for both days.

PS: Do not forget to check my reports on my blog at https://halsteadopenhouseindex.blogspot.com/. Great suggestion from one of our readers: write in the comment section how many visitors were direct buyers and how many came with brokers. Those of you comfortable, you can write here the exact address of your exclusive, so it becomes visible to all.  Also, check the link to dataset. (In the comments section you will find interesting data, such as addresses of properties or if there was a price drop, etc.)

Best regards,

Fritz Frigan
To Sign Up to Receive Halstead’s Open House Index Report Click Here