Halstead Open House Index - Report from weekend of December 22, 2019

Good morning Halstead Open House Index subscribers and followers! Here is my last report this year….. wait, this decade!!! Next time you get my recap of open houses will be deep into the 2020s – next Thursday on January 2! Could you believe that this project is now two years and three months old? And it lives primarily thanks to you, by patiently sending me your data each week. Let’s see what happened on the weekend before Christmas. We received 85 replies (it seems low, but much stronger than last year, when we received just 55 replies). The average dipped to 2.09 attendees per open house – from 2.46 reported the weekend earlier. Last year, on December 23, 2018 weekend the attendance was just 1.84. Market getting stronger? Maybe. Wait to see the comments from the winner below. 27 open houses reported zero attendance. This is whooping 31% of all open houses reported! The record attendance was reported by Cody Parker Hellberg of Wald Real Estate. She reported 10 attendees at her open house at 321 E 48th Street, a 1BR for $770K. Here in her own words: “Hi Fritz, This apartment has actually been listed since 6/11/19, originally for $925,000, then $875,000, $850,000, $815,000, and finally we did our first open house at $775,000. It is a 770 sq ft, one bedroom, condo, penthouse, with a terrace, so even though it needs a full renovation the price is finally very attractive. Managing the crowd was easy as few groups overlapped (at most 2 at a time). We do have a couple of offers, though negotiations have been slow due to the holidays. Aside from the open house with great attendance I have had appointments to show almost every day. The market seems to have picked up in general the last 2 weeks.”  See the importance of correct pricing? At almost 17% below the original asking price, Cody finally found the market for this seller. I heard from another agent who reported 6 visitors last weekend. She said that all of them seem to be real buyers. Is this another sign of a pent-up buyers demand that will unleash after January 1, 2020? I certainly hope so! There were 1940 buyers hopping from one open house to another last weekend. Margin of error? Huge! Here is the dataset. Let’s check individual boroughs: Manhattan – the average dropped to 1.96, from 2.27 the weekend prior. It was 1.64 a year ago on the same weekend, hence a bit stronger. We received just 63 replies from Manhattan. The samples are too small for each neighborhood, but interesting that Midtown East with 2.00 was this time stronger than Upper East Side (1.79). Upper West Side (2.62) was above the average. See the rest of the numbers below. Brooklyn – the average dropped to 2.40, from 3.92 the weekend earlier. It was 2.75 a year ago. But hard to read into these numbers. Last year we received just 8 replies from Brooklyn, this year only 10. See the rest below. Bronx – the average was 1.40 from five open houses reported from the Bronx, all from Riverdale. Queens – the average was 3.00, also from just five open houses reported from Queens. Staten Island – silence. Size – Largest samples reported from 1BRs open houses (2.27) and 2BRs (1.88). See the rest below. Price - $500K-$1M was best visited last weekend, 2.70. Condition – the wrecks (4.00) won again, thanks to the record open house with 10 visitors. First Open House – just 75% more traffic for the first open house this time. Honestly, unless the seller insisted, I would recommend holding off your first open houses for the first weekends in January. By Appointment Only – 188% more traffic at “normal” open houses, vs. those labeled “by appointment only”. For all of you with patience to read all the way to the end of my weekly report, I am sharing here some statistics: ·     There are 24,123 open houses in my database, we started recording this since October 8, 2017. ·     Since October 8, 2017, the average attendance on Sundays was 3.22. On Saturdays it was 2.99 ·      In 2019 alone, the average attendance on Sunday open houses was 3.16. On Saturdays it was 2.68. ·     For properties above $5M, average attendance in the last two years and three months was 1.76. In 2019 it was 1.60. ·     For properties above $7M, the average attendance in the last two years and three months was 1.65. In 2019 it dropped to 1.17. ·     In Manhattan, the average attendance since October 8, 2017, was 2.92. In 2019 alone it was 2.88. ·     In Brooklyn, the average attendance since October 8, 2017, was 4.25. In 2019 alone it was 4.08. ·     In Queens, the average attendance since October 8, 2017, was 4.39. In 2019 alone it was 4.04. ·     The average attendance for first open houses since October 8, 2017 was 6.12. In 2019 alone it has climbed to 6.64. I find this very interesting. It seems that the number of buyers who “saw it all” have grown, and they are eagerly waiting for new properties to hit the market. For me, this is another signal of the pent-up demand, that will improve the market in 2020 (pending no some unforeseen madness on the political scene in the US). Overall, the above numbers clearly show that the open house attendance dropped in 2019, compared to previous year. Was this a clear signal that the buyer’s demand dropped in 2019, as compared to 2018? Is open house attendance clear indicator of the buyers’ demand? think so, but would love to hear your thoughts. I have one more idea for you. I’d love to statistically find out an answer to the following question: How many showings does it take to receive an offer? Here is how to do it: as you place your new exclusive on the market in 2020, keep meticulous track of your showings. Track each open house attendance and each request to show by appointment. The day you receive your first offer, count the showings and report to me. I promise to keep all confidential. It would be wonderful experiment to figure this out. Why? Because you will have “scientific” proof to tell the seller when to drop the price! Who is in? I am wishing you all the best in 2020 and thank you for participating! Remember my 2020 resolution: to receive surveys from 10% of all open houses in NYC. Will you help? Best of luck at your last open house this decade! P.S. – I am rarely using this venue for boosting the Halstead horn, but this week is an exception. Did you notice recent Halstead announcement about setting up corporate WeChat account? Check this link. I think this is phenomenal venue to reach and attract Chinese speaking buyers and investors.  Fritz PS: Do not forget to check my reports on my blog at https://halsteadopenhouseindex.blogspot.com/. You can easily view the reports from previous weeks and leave comments. Also, check the link to dataset (the link is above) – many agents leave useful comments in the Comment Column, like full address, price drop or outdoor space.  Fritz Frigan To Sign Up to Receive Halstead’s Open House Index Report Click Here ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Halstead Open House Index - Report from the Weekend of December 15, 2019

Good morning Halstead Open House Index followers and contributors! Here is the analysis of the weekend of December 14-15: We received only 237 surveys (still, much better than the 200 we received last year on December 16, 2018 weekend), and the average for all of NYC dipped to 2.46 attendees per open houses. It was 2.65 the weekend prior and 2.39 a year ago. 56 open houses reported zero attendance, so at 23.6% of all open houses agents were having uninterrupted chit-chat with building personnel and residents. Slow open houses are a good opportunity to meet other owners and secure another exclusive! The most visited open house mention goes this week to Elba Diaz, from Buchbinder Warren. She reported 15 visitors at her open house for 105 East 19th Street, a 2BR for $1,100,00 in the Gramercy Park area of Manhattan. Here, in her own words: “Hi Fritz, I’m shocked. I guess given the time of year 15 in attendance is not bad! Yes 15 is confirmed. I think location, location and price per sq foot. The unit needs renovation. But it’s a unique, large apartment. This was the 2nd open house after a price drop from $1200K to $1100K. Honestly, it was not difficult to handle (the crowd). The duplex has an intercom on both floors so I was able to ring people in and run upstairs to greet them and allow them to roam as I spoke to others. I did receive an offer, however it’s with a contingency and we are still trying to work out all the details. This is not my first offer however, I had two others previously but we were not able to agree on terms. I believe hosting open houses consistently is still the best way to show a property. Some in attendance may have been curious spectators BUT I received an offer from a real buyer so you never know.”  There were 5589 open houses held last weekend in NYC and, according to my estimate, there were approximately 3638 prospective buyers hopping from one to another. Here is the dataset. Let’s check the details for each borough: Manhattan – the average attendance dropped to 2.27, from 2.34 the weekend prior. Manhattan recorded 2.42 last year on the weekend of December 16, 2018. Busy in the Gramercy Park Area (4.57) and East Village (3.50). Upper East Side (2.78) and Upper West Side (2.61) were above the average. Slow pretty much everywhere else: Harlem (0.88), Midtown East (1.33), Other Downtown Areas (1.22). We received 179 replies from Manhattan. Brooklyn – the average dropped to 3.92, from 4.51 the weekend before. This was still so much better than a year ago, when on December 16, 2018 Brooklyn reported 2.13. Fort Greene/Clinton Hill (6.40), Park Slope (6.20) and Brooklyn Heights (6.00) were above the average. Slow everywhere else, see the details below. We received 37 responses from Brooklyn. Bronx – the average dropped to 0.92, from 2.05 the weekend prior. We received just 13 replies from the Bronx open houses. Queens – the average dipped to 2.38, from 3.92 the weekend earlier. Just eight replies submitted from the Queens open houses. Staten Island – winter hibernation in progress. Size – 2BRs recorded best attendance among apartments (2.62). 4BRs and 5BRs were the loneliest. See details below. Three multi-unit buildings reported the average of 5.67. Price – almost identical attendance in $1M-$2M and in $500K-$1M ranges (2.68 and 2.67). The slowest was in $3M+ range (1.07). First Open House – just 88% premium in traffic last weekend for 1st open house. Interestingly, top three open house by attendance were NOT first open house! By Appointment Only – 209% more traffic at normal open houses vs. those labeled “by appointment only”. This is all for today folks. I received interesting comment from Gerard Splendore from Warburg. “Fritz, this is often easier than done, but if the building permits and the other agent will cooperate, coordinating open houses in the same building at the same time or overlapping times can easily double or quadruple attendance. When both apartments are on the same floor, it is virtually inevitable that buyers will view both apartments, especially if they are close in price and size. I have had multiple open houses and price drops for a convertible 2BR for Apt 6E at 155 Henry Street, now asking $729K and the managing agent has been trying to sell a one bedroom sponsor unit for almost 4 months, asking $679K.  Now listed with Compass, I called the agent and asked if we coordinate times. She agreed and we both had a large attendance. My approach to “the competition” after more than 20 years in real estate is “we are all in this together, isn’t it better to cooperate?” Sometimes it works.” Let me know if you agree to this approach or if you are doing it already (with or without the knowledge of your colleague competitor, wink, wink). For those of you patient enough to read to the end of my report, I included some stats for all of you marketing 1BR and 2BR units in co-ops may find interesting.  Best of luck at your open houses this coming weekend. Last year, on December 23rd, 2018, the average attendance was 1.84. Will it be better this year? Send me your replies and we will find out! Fritz PS: Do not forget to check my reports on my blog at https://halsteadopenhouseindex.blogspot.com/. You can easily view the reports from previous weeks and leave comments. Also, check the link to dataset (the link is above) – many agents leave useful comments in the Comment Column, like full address, price drop or outdoor space.  Fritz Frigan To Sign Up to Receive Halstead’s Open House Index Report Click Here ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Halstead Open House Index – Report from the Weekend of December 8, 2019

Good Morning Halstead Open House Index Subscribers and Contributors! Here is the analysis from the weekend of December 7-8: We received 317 surveys, thank you, thank you! Great recovery from the Thanksgiving weekend, when we received just 111. The number of open houses held jumped strongly too. Reminder, there were just 2839 open houses held the weekend of December 1, in contrast to 6282 open houses held this last weekend, meaning we received in our survey 5% of all open houses held in our survey! Not bad, but remember the goal is to receive 10% each week! The average attendance in all of NYC jumped to “normal” levels. It was 2.65, compared to a miserable 1.87 the weekend of December 1. This is the 4th strongest attendance this quarter. Last year on December 9 weekend we recorded 2.49, so a bit stronger this year. 60 open houses, 19% were super lonely, with zero attendance. When this percentage comes regularly down to 10-12%, it will be the sign of buyers coming back. In the meantime, join your friends to sing in the Sgt. Pepper Lonely Hearts Club Band! The most visited open house was the one held by Karen Wolfe of Halstead. She reported 19 visitors to her first open house for the property at 213 14th Street in the Park Slope of Brooklyn. Here is what Karen had to say: “Hi Fritz! How exciting! Yes, 19 parties and multiple competitive offers going to highest and best today! I think the property is attractive because it is priced correctly for what it is-a townhouse in need of a full renovation but has amazing potential in a phenomenal neighborhood on a great block. People were patient and I was able to answer questions and engage with customers. Busy but manageable. Thanks for the follow up and for your work each week to bring this info back to us. Super interesting to follow.” There were 4405 prospective buyers hopping from one open house to another last weekend. Here is the dataset. Let’s take a peek at what happened in each borough: Manhattan – the average jumped to 2.34, from the weekend prior when we recorded 1.69. A nice 40% recovery, but this is expected when compared to Thanksgiving weekend, which is ALWAYS slow (why are you guys holding open houses on Thanksgiving weekend?). Last year, on December 9 weekend, the average was 2.37, so pretty much the same. The East Village (4.00), Central & West Village (3.00) were all above the average, and so was the Upper East Side (2.90) and Upper West Side (2.61). I find it interesting that in the last four weeks the UES is showing stronger numbers than the UWS. Not sure why, we are getting a solid number of surveys from both locations. Other Downtown Areas were very slow (0.91), and not much better in Midtown West (1.17). It was also slow in Chelsea (1.70) and Midtown East (1.86). See the rest below. Brooklyn – the average jumped very nicely to 4.51, from 2.88 the weekend prior. Last year, on the weekend of December 9 Brooklyn recorded just 3.33. Strong traffic in Park Slope, Downtown Brooklyn, and some other areas with 5-6 visitors, but beware of small sample sizes. Williamsburg was below the average with 3.00 from 11 open houses. We received 37 open houses from Brooklyn.  Bronx – the average jumped to 2.05 from 20 open houses received. The weekend prior it was 1.56. Queens – the average jumped to 3.92, from 2.00 the weekend earlier. Busy at two open houses in Jackson Heights! Staten Island – not much happening there. Size – Townhouses (5.50) and Multi-family houses (6.00) are in a different market than apartments. From apartments an interesting blip at 4BR open houses (4.33) – but from just three open houses. Otherwise 2BR were in demand (2.83). Not many people liked JR4s last weekend (1.91). Price - $1M-$2M is where the most buyers are. Above $2M and above $3M fared the worst. Condition – “Good, but some work needed” (3.22) this time beat the wrecks (2.92). First Open House – 219% premium for first open houses (5.33) vs. the stale ones (2.43). By Appointment Only – fairly narrow premium this week: 2.70 vs. 2.11 for “normal” open houses vs. “by appointment only”. This is all for today. I am experimenting with posting my weekly reports on a blog: https://halsteadopenhouseindex.blogspot.com/. Here you will be able to see old post, in chronological order. I am not going back (too much work), just from the last weekend forward. You can also post comments here. Let me know what you think! Feel free to ask for more specific analysis of open house traffic. For instance, “the average traffic at 1BR condo open houses in Midtown West and Midtown East from July 1, 2019 until today”. Or similar. You get the point. Best of luck at your open houses this coming weekend. If you did not post your OH on StreetEasy yet, you are too late! Best Regards, Fritz Frigan To Sign Up to Receive Halstead’s Open House Index Report Click Here ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌