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Good morning
Halstead Open House Index subscribers and followers!
Here is my last report this year…..
wait, this decade!!! Next time you get my recap of open houses will
be deep into the 2020s – next Thursday on January 2! Could you
believe that this project is now two years and three months old? And
it lives primarily thanks to you, by patiently sending me your data
each week. Let’s see what happened on the weekend before Christmas.
We received
85 replies (it seems low, but much stronger than last year, when we
received just 55 replies). The average dipped to 2.09 attendees per
open house – from 2.46 reported the weekend earlier. Last year, on
December 23, 2018 weekend the attendance was just 1.84. Market
getting stronger? Maybe. Wait to see the comments from the winner
below.
27 open
houses reported zero attendance. This is whooping 31% of all open
houses reported!
The record
attendance was reported by Cody Parker Hellberg of Wald Real
Estate. She reported 10 attendees at her open house at 321 E
48th Street, a 1BR for $770K. Here in her own words: “Hi
Fritz, This apartment has actually been listed since 6/11/19,
originally for $925,000, then $875,000, $850,000, $815,000, and
finally we did our first open house at $775,000. It is a 770 sq ft,
one bedroom, condo, penthouse, with a terrace, so even though it
needs a full renovation the price is finally very attractive.
Managing the crowd was easy as few groups overlapped (at most 2 at a
time). We do have a couple of offers, though negotiations have been
slow due to the holidays. Aside from the open house with great
attendance I have had appointments to show almost every day. The
market seems to have picked up in general the last 2 weeks.”
See the
importance of correct pricing? At almost 17% below the original
asking price, Cody finally found the market for this seller. I heard
from another agent who reported 6 visitors last weekend. She said
that all of them seem to be real buyers. Is this another sign of a
pent-up buyers demand that will unleash after January 1, 2020? I
certainly hope so!
There were
1940 buyers hopping from one open house to another last weekend.
Margin of error? Huge!
Here is the dataset. Let’s check
individual boroughs:
Manhattan – the average dropped to 1.96, from
2.27 the weekend prior. It was 1.64 a year ago on the same weekend,
hence a bit stronger. We received just 63 replies from Manhattan. The
samples are too small for each neighborhood, but interesting that
Midtown East with 2.00 was this time stronger than Upper East Side
(1.79). Upper West Side (2.62) was above the average. See the rest of
the numbers below.
Brooklyn – the average dropped to 2.40, from
3.92 the weekend earlier. It was 2.75 a year ago. But hard to read into
these numbers. Last year we received just 8 replies from Brooklyn,
this year only 10. See the rest below.
Bronx – the average was 1.40 from five
open houses reported from the Bronx, all from Riverdale.
Queens – the average was 3.00, also from
just five open houses reported from Queens.
Staten
Island – silence.
Size – Largest samples reported from
1BRs open houses (2.27) and 2BRs (1.88). See the rest below.
Price - $500K-$1M was best visited last
weekend, 2.70.
Condition – the wrecks (4.00) won again,
thanks to the record open house with 10 visitors.
First Open
House – just 75%
more traffic for the first open house this time. Honestly, unless the
seller insisted, I would recommend holding off your first open houses
for the first weekends in January.
By
Appointment Only – 188% more traffic at “normal” open houses, vs.
those labeled “by appointment only”.
For all of
you with patience to read all the way to the end of my weekly report,
I am sharing here some statistics:
·
There are 24,123 open houses in my database, we
started recording this since October 8, 2017.
·
Since October 8, 2017, the average attendance on
Sundays was 3.22. On Saturdays it was 2.99
·
In 2019 alone, the average attendance on Sunday open
houses was 3.16. On Saturdays it was
2.68.
·
For properties above $5M, average attendance in the
last two years and three months was 1.76. In 2019 it was 1.60.
·
For properties above $7M, the average attendance in
the last two years and three months was
1.65. In
2019 it dropped to 1.17.
·
In Manhattan, the average attendance since October 8,
2017, was 2.92. In 2019 alone it was
2.88.
·
In Brooklyn, the average attendance since October 8,
2017, was 4.25. In 2019 alone it was 4.08.
·
In Queens, the average attendance since October 8,
2017, was 4.39. In 2019 alone it was 4.04.
·
The average attendance for first open houses since
October 8, 2017 was 6.12. In 2019 alone it
has climbed
to 6.64. I find this very interesting. It seems that the number of
buyers who “saw it
all” have
grown, and they are eagerly waiting for new properties to hit the
market. For me, this
is another
signal of the pent-up demand, that will improve the market in 2020
(pending no
some
unforeseen madness on the political scene in the US).
Overall, the
above numbers clearly show that the open house attendance dropped in
2019, compared to previous year. Was this a clear signal that the
buyer’s demand dropped in 2019, as compared to 2018? Is open house
attendance clear indicator of the buyers’ demand? think so, but
would love to hear your thoughts.
I have one
more idea for you. I’d love to statistically find out an answer to
the following question: How many showings does it take to receive an
offer? Here is how to do it: as you place your new exclusive on the
market in 2020, keep meticulous track of your showings. Track each
open house attendance and each request to show by appointment. The
day you receive your first offer, count the showings and report to
me. I promise to keep all confidential. It would be wonderful
experiment to figure this out. Why? Because you will have
“scientific” proof to tell the seller when to drop the price! Who is
in?
I am wishing
you all the best in 2020 and thank you for participating! Remember my
2020 resolution: to receive surveys from 10% of all open houses in
NYC. Will you help?
Best of luck
at your last open house this decade!
P.S. – I am
rarely using this venue for boosting the Halstead horn, but this week
is an exception. Did you notice recent Halstead announcement about
setting up corporate WeChat account? Check this link. I think this is
phenomenal venue to reach and attract Chinese speaking buyers and
investors.
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